Why the Iran-US ceasefire is falling apart
Iran and the US have resumed fighting because they don’t see each other as ‘reliable negotiating partners’, says analyst Ali Vaez. Neither Iran nor the United States seems able to deliver a “knockout
Iran and the US have resumed fighting because they don’t see each other as ‘reliable negotiating partners’, says analyst Ali Vaez. Neither Iran nor t
Read Full Story at Al Jazeera →Why This Matters
The unraveling of the Iran-US ceasefire underscores the fragility of even carefully brokered diplomatic agreements when trust erodes between adversaries. With neither side perceiving the other as a reliable partner, the collapse risks escalating regional proxy conflicts and choking off what little diplomacy remains in a volatile Middle East. The breakdown also signals a broader trend of failed de-escalation efforts, where short-term tactical gains override long-term stability.
Background Context
After years of clandestine confrontations and indirect negotiations, the Iran-US ceasefire emerged as a rare moment of mutual restraint, though never fully codified. Iran’s hardline factions have consistently viewed Washington as an unpredictable actor, while U.S. policymakers see Tehran’s regional ambitions—from Yemen to Lebanon—as inherently destabilizing. Economic pressures, including U.S. sanctions and Iran’s energy exports, have further complicated any sustainable détente.
What Happens Next
Renewed tit-for-tat strikes between proxies in Syria or Iraq could intensify, with both sides calculating that limited escalation won’t trigger all-out war. Diplomats may attempt last-ditch shuttle talks, but the absence of face-to-face negotiations leaves little room for compromise. The wild card remains whether Israel’s strikes on Iranian assets will force Tehran into a more aggressive response, upending any fragile balance.
Bigger Picture
This episode reflects a wider erosion of diplomatic norms, where mutual deterrence is increasingly seen as the only viable alternative to failed negotiations. It also highlights how regional proxy wars—once contained—now serve as primary arenas for great-power competition, complicating any return to diplomatic solutions. The failure of the ceasefire may embolden hardliners on both sides, making future compromises even more elusive.
