‘Will not leave’: Is Israel killing the US-Iran MoU by staying in Lebanon?
As he visited troops in southern Lebanon on Tuesday, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu declared that the military “will not leave” the area as long as the Iran-backed armed group Hezbollah rem
As he visited troops in southern Lebanon on Tuesday, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu declared that the military “will not leave” the area as
Read Full Story at Al Jazeera →Why This Matters
The standoff between Israel and Iran-backed Hezbollah in southern Lebanon is not just a regional flashpoint—it risks unraveling the fragile deterrence that has prevented direct US-Iran military confrontation since the 2015 nuclear deal. With Netanyahu’s vow to maintain Israel’s military presence, Washington faces a critical test: can it preserve its diplomatic channels with Tehran while its closest Middle Eastern ally escalates pressures on a group that directly threatens those very negotiations?
Background Context
Israel’s occupation of southern Lebanon in the 1980s and 1990s—under the pretext of countering Hezbollah—left a legacy of resentment and strategic overreach, culminating in the 2006 war that ended in a stalemate. Today’s scenario is more complex: Hezbollah, now a state-within-a-state with advanced weaponry, operates with near-total impunity in Lebanon, yet its actions are still framed by Israel as an existential threat requiring perpetual military vigilance.
What Happens Next
The coming weeks may reveal whether Israel’s refusal to withdraw is a bluff to force Hezbollah into a new ceasefire or a step toward a broader conflict that could drag in US forces or regional proxies. Washington’s muted response so far suggests it is prioritizing nuclear talks over Lebanese stability, but any Israeli escalation risks forcing Biden’s hand—either to rein in Netanyahu or to abandon the MoU entirely.
Bigger Picture
This episode underscores a broader erosion of de-escalation frameworks in the Middle East, where local conflicts increasingly intersect with global diplomacy. As Iran and Israel wage proxy wars while negotiating over uranium enrichment, the risk is not just bilateral escalation but the collapse of multilateral agreements that once served as the region’s last safeguards against total war.
